| 05:01pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
max
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647896
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| 05:01pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647897
|
"thats another cock up putaar"
-my dad to me 5 mins ago |
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| 05:05pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
shilpa
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647898
|
lifes all ups n downs hun!! |
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| 05:07pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647899
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| 05:12pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sukh
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647902
|
mainly downs though |
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| 05:13pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
max
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647903
|
 today is a gud day to go fishing! later boys |
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| 05:14pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
shilpa
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647904
|
talkin of experiance sukh?? |
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| 05:26pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
KINGMAKER
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647905
|
What did you buy and how much did you lose? |
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| 05:36pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sukh
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647907
|
u got it in one shilpa |
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| 06:06pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
shilpa
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647912
|
ouch ouch ouch..i feel ur pain sandeep..i was just listenin 2 the news.. |
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| 11:52pm, 15th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 647980
|
Sandeep dude,
take heart, the US mkts showed a massive recovery and Nasdaq actually finished up a few points on the day. UK mkt should rise about 3/4% again tomorrow morning.
Dude, provided you have invested over a staggered period and are investing continually with a really long-term time horizon (20-40 years), you should walk away with annual returns above inflation of around 3% (slightly pessimistic).
Or did you follow in Rizcenzo's FTSE footsteps and invest it all in one tech stock about a year ago?
We pays our money and takes our chances, eh?
Hold on, what track am I on...is it the wrong one...are we talking about shares as in equity...or is it shares of something else...cake perhaps, maybe even banana cake? If so, I'm sorry, I ate it...very nice though!
;) |
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| 11:25am, 16th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648013
|
Woah, they didn't pick up in the morning..that's some real -ive sentiment...moribund!
Maybe when the US opens it will provide a little relief...UK is in a much better position than the states.
Fingers crossed.
*Rizcenzo calls broker to sell, sell, sell and buy gvt bonds* |
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| 02:35pm, 16th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648060
|
I am a Rizcenzo's FTSE footsteper |
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| 02:36pm, 16th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648061
|
what a rush ! |
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| 02:39pm, 16th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648062
|
*goes long on banana futures*
people eat more bananas when depressed |
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| 03:10pm, 16th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
JoKeR
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648076
|
lol |
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| 10:14pm, 16th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648174
|
LoL @ banana futures! I bet they exist in some places.
I went long on them again - I've got about 8 more to eat before they turn too brown and make me sick...the race is on!
And now, time for a little prayer to the Gods in the clouds (central banks) above:
"Peace be to thee, central bankers of the UK and US, for ye are all powerful. We are in the presence of greatness and bow down to thee. Once again, you have saved us from the throes of despair (recession) by keeping rates unchanged. We are gracious. Amen."
*Rizcenzo does a ritual killing of a lamb, hoping it will suffice for the time being* |
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| 11:07pm, 16th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648192
|
LMAO @ RIZ !!
*phones his broker at the ecaudorian futures exchange* |
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| 12:01am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sunny
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648218
|
ritual lamb killing!!! you chief!!!
its gonna be brutal today folks... its carnage on the streets!! i'm selling futures in cave housing...anybody want?
/sunny |
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| 12:15am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648233
|
as long as their not in afghanistan |
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| 12:20am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sunny
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648235
|
/sunny |
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| 12:40am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Bharat
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648240
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Greenspan is worriedly about Foreigners selling Govt. Bonds, if the dollar keeps sliding......
Euro was stronger than the dollar yesterday *faints* what about today?  |
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| 12:51am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sunny
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648242
|
if foreigners start selling govt bonds big time, the us will be fucked. the dollar will keep sliding to a point where interest rates will have to be raised to keep it level, then the u.s. economy will be hit hard....
i don't fancy greenspan's chances now....
i bet bush starts a war to keep the americans's minds on other things
/sunny |
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| 12:52am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648245
|
LMAO @ this thread...
Bharat - the infamous greenback era is over...when it all goes to hell, and it's getting there, I'm going to exercise my futures in cave dwelling, take all my profits from cornering the banana futures mkt on the Ecuadorian exchange, and live out my remaining years in isolation.
Sunny - I hope these caves come with broadband access. The last one I got was just a hole in the face of a mountain...I think I was conned big time.
*apologies on the lamb*
Kebab any one? The gods weren't hungry, they didn't even sniff it! |
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| 12:59am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Bharat
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648250
|
Actually I got it from my favorite newspaper that reported "sleeping less might help in staying alert in days"... and fucked my mind the whole last week.... so I wont be taking it to seriously.... although I am strongly weighing my options of going back to India..... (due to spiritual reasons  )
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| 01:11am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648254
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Bharat? Heads or tails or post above? I'm lost, moreso than usual. |
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| 02:57am, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Bharat
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648262
|
Riz
I, personnally, am taking very slow approach and keep most of money in companies that I know would bounce back. I used to muck around with quick-make shares, but I aint got the balls to try 'em now (like there are any of those chances left ) - actually my friend does all of that shit for me...
so the verdict, Bharat is not moving to trade in Japan, and slams the sell-sell people for being rats......
Bharat roars... even though has lost some money at shares last year |
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| 09:21pm, 17th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sunny
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648500
|
i don't think hardly anyone made money last year the way stocks where going.
don't worry riz, caves include broadband access, fridges, and helper monkeys that run down the mountain and buy your newspaper for you. you want? 
/sunny |
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| 03:45am, 18th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648599
|
@ Bharat, you sounding like a trading veteran dude...but "companies you *know* will bounce back" ??? Insider trading eh...shamone then, share the joy of your highly price sensitive information on this non-public hush hush thread (wink, wink)
*Rizcenzo tells the FED regulators lurking in the background to beat it!*
Dudes, quick-fire money is there for the taking, sure thing, one way bet...buy shares in Apple - just checked on Nasdaq, and they are $15.99. If you liquidate the company I think it works out at $11-12 per share, so the brand is being valued at zilch, and its got a pretty niche captive customer group, with little competition. Tell your granny to buy some, I'm so sure about this one. Do I make a good salesman?
*Rizcenzo places an order for 1000 shares via his off-shore dodgy accounts*
LoL @ Sunny...dude - these are the luxury caves...cool. The "Butler Monkies" sound pretty impressive. I'll take two (one for work, one for amusement...magic tricks, juggling etc).
Official Warning - Shares tend to go down, and then down then some more. Japan is a good indicator of future performace. Run for the hills. |
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| 04:37am, 18th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Bharat
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648605
|
Apple profits fell 48% last quarter... if that means something....
I am really crap at these things... still learning... |
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| 10:01am, 18th Jul 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sunny
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 648613
|
oh i forgot to say that the monkeys already do juggling!
/sunny |
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| 10:40pm, 1st Aug 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 650712
|
The Footsie 100 has closed down 201.7 at 4044.5
*stands on top of my roof* |
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| 12:45am, 2nd Aug 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 650721
|
Please Sandeep dude, don't do it...it is so 1930's.
FTSE closed down big times, but we live in a volatile era. In the asian crisis the mkts bounced back slightly before plummeting to their doom...for some reason, financial pundits call it "dead cat bounce"...i think it means that if you drop a cat from say 100 metres it will hit the ground and then "bounce" a little...but either way it is dead.
Myself I have never seen a cat bounce, and if a cat is dropped even from a great height, I reckon its naturally body shape will take of the parachute shape of a flying squirrel, so whilst it may break its legs, it probably wouldn't die....I will try this.
Don't jump Sandeep!...the term might change to "Dead Sandeep Bounce", and no one wants that.
You could always short the market and make a profit from its demise, or you could be an honourable citizen and pile in a little more cash...it might just trigger a turnaround...whats your view on the mkt dude, shall we still run to the hills with our butler monkies?
*eyes Apple stock again...looks tasty*
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| 12:55pm, 2nd Aug 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Ghetto_Paki
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 650768
|
LOLZ, OH WELL LOOK ON DA BRITE SIDE. I WENT 2 DA STOCKBROKERS LAST WEEK N YDAY. N DA GUY WOZ TELLIN MA UNCLE DAT SUM GUY INVESTED £700,000 IN SHARES, LAST YR, TINKIN THEY CUDNT GO DOWN NE LOWER, BUT DIS YR HIZ GOT £200,000 LEFT N LOST HALF A MIL. SO LOOK ON DA BRITE SIDE LEAST U AINT GOT DAT MUCH 2 LOSE! LOL (I DONT TINK) |
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| 12:56pm, 2nd Aug 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Ghetto_Paki
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 650769
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OH YEH N BTW, WEN MY MUM CHECKED LAST WEEK SHE HAD LOST 7K SO DONT WORRY BOUT IT. SHIT HAPPENZ!  |
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| 02:44pm, 2nd Aug 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 650794
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@ Riz..... i feel off the roof but im okay
my banana futures are looking ripe
@ ghetto paki
i feel so much better now |
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| 03:01pm, 2nd Aug 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Ghetto_Paki
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 650805
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LOLZ.........AINT MUCH YA CAN DO WID50 BAR NEWAYZ! |
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| 03:08pm, 2nd Aug 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Johny
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 650808
|
you win some and then you loose some !.....
and then you lose some more..... |
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| 03:14pm, 2nd Aug 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Ghetto_Paki
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 650814
|
LOL @ JOHNY. TRU SAY! |
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| 10:02pm, 30th Sep 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sandeep
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 658993
|
*JUMPS OFF ROOF* |
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| 11:12pm, 30th Sep 2002 |
MY SHARES |
sunny
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 658998
|
lol
/sunny |
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| 01:41am, 1st Oct 2002 |
MY SHARES |
fuct
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 659007
|
so i guess its a good time to buy then eh |
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| 08:29am, 1st Oct 2002 |
MY SHARES |
kitten
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 659017
|
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| 08:40am, 1st Oct 2002 |
MY SHARES |
elimin8
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 659018
|
lost a few pennys myself man |
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| 09:31pm, 1st Oct 2002 |
MY SHARES |
Femalelitus
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 659285
|
my cousin is a stock/shares adivsor |
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| 12:25pm, 6th Feb 2005 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 822445
|
hah, just applied to Freedom of Information Act to investigate threads of yesteryear.
On 2 August 2002, Rizcenzo said Apple stock looks tasty. It was trading around $15-$16. Now the stock is around $78.84. Thats some 500% return.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL&d=t
Damn I'm good.
; ) |
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| 08:55am, 7th Feb 2005 |
MY SHARES |
kitten
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 822526
|
Any more tips for a poor kitten? |
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| 08:39pm, 10th Feb 2005 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 823100
|
sell fixed income, US Treasuries at the long end. You will become rich beyond your wildest dreams this time next year.
For $100 (inc P+P) you can get my 6 CD set "Free your finances, free your life"...limited time only. |
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| 01:31pm, 19th Feb 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 824012
|
Please note everybody...this is thread is the route to financial freedom.
When I recommended shorting the above T-Bonds, i was referring to the 10 yr. Over the past few weeks, 1o yr yields moved up from just under 4.0% to 4.26%.
This is some serious wonga in just under two weeks.
Put a stop in at yield 4.20% as we have US CPI data next week and could see a big move. Either way, I'm off to the Bahamas to chill in my millionaires yacht.
ahoy hoy.
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| 05:47pm, 19th Feb 2005 |
MY SHARES |
Rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 824035
|
Deciding where to go after the Bahamas, I checked out some exchange rates from the monitor on my yacht.
To my surprise, I see the New Zealand dollar is trading very rich against our good friend, the old greenback. It's tempting fate, but short NZD/USD positions look very attractive (current rate around 0.7250).
http://www.chartflow.com/ozforex/charts.asp
Righty then, back to relaxing on the yacht. |
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| 12:30am, 6th Mar 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 825866
|
buying back the US 10 year at 4.30%, what a killer phantom trade.
Now then, following the recent USD slide, NZD is looking way too rich.
I would be looking to sell this bad boy at 0.7336 (excess of 22 year high). |
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| 12:45pm, 6th Mar 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 825892
|
Reuters - "Buffett bets $21.4 bln against the US dollar
Sat Mar 5, 2005 04:02 PM ET"
mmm, the big guns are lining up against me...its going to be rough ride. |
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| 03:55pm, 5th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 830001
|
ahoy hoy!
back from my yachting trip and NZD is down to 0.7070. Taking profit on this one and waiting for the "next big thing".
The morale of this profitable "I-told-you-so" trade....when the whole world is telling you not to do something, that's the best time to put the trade on...unfortunately its also the hardest from a psychological perspective.
..i get the feeling this post belongs somewhere else...oh well |
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| 03:59pm, 5th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
Gujarati_Babu
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 830002
|
^^Is this your blog?
You're the only one who seems to be saying owt on this thread now.
Sorry to interrupt. Carry on... |
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| 04:07pm, 5th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 830003
|
i like to think there is a massive readership of "underground" investors who have been trading of said wisdom, but they choose to be discrete and not reveal their identities...for a man with unforetold material riches attracts many an unsavioury character.
...anyway, that is what I would like to believe...and for these quiet massess, I will carry on
;) |
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| 06:45pm, 8th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 830512
|
okay, I'm pushing the boat out on this one. Friends, the next big thing is to sell oil (stop loss at $65). I like the August contract:
Nymex crude August delivery 55.65.
Rationale: Would you pay 55 buck for a barrel of oil...I didn't think so...this black goo is overvalued. alrighty, so some Goldman Sachs analyst put out a report last week talking about risk of a "Super spike" with oil hitting over $100 a barrel. And the IMF/World Bank have just revised their forecasts higher.
Fair play to them...I see their argument. I just think its gone too far already.
...will come back in a few weeks to review this trade, probably crawling on my hands and knees (in shame!)...still, you gots to try eh! |
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| 11:20pm, 13th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 830937
|
you know you love it..sweet crude baby, sweet crude:
sold at 55.65..currently 53.74.
http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/lsco_fut_cso.jsp
I'm taking theoretical profit as the market has delivered sooner than I expected...plus, allows me to chalk up another winner on the board!
:)
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| 10:47pm, 18th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831336
|
Keep an eye on the 10 yr US rate fellow countrymen. Its back down to 4.249%. Once we get in to the sub 4.10 zone, it will be time to line up those shorts, take aim and fire. |
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| 11:33am, 19th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831368
|
okay, next recommendation is short GBP/USD..a favourite of mine. Current price is just over 1.91.
http://www.dailyfx.com/fxpowerchart/ChartStation.html
strategy would be to risk 50% now and the rest at 1.95. Why not the full amount? Well GBP/USD on a short-term uptrend right now, so there is risk of further upside.
of course this also means it dang cheap to go on holiday in the states or in any other country pegged to the USD...nice. |
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| 12:49pm, 19th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
BOMBER_JATT
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831378
|
RIZ WHATS YOUR VIEW ON GBP/JPY ITS CURRENTLY TOPPED 205.00... |
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| 06:04pm, 19th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831415
|
Ah yes, indeed, our home currency is looking toppy on charts against yen.
Its a pretty choppy cross but it looked like it trades pretty wildly in a range, and we are at the top of that range.
Only glich is that it pays to be long GBP/JPY especially with global growth concerns having stepped up a notch.
I'd still be a bear though..its in my nature...always selling the pound.
:) |
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| 08:46am, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
BOMBER_JATT
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831490
|
Im getting a right caining on the brent oil im short on about 5190.... im too bearish on the cable.... |
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| 08:50am, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
oOo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831491
|
ah ha
ummm
i put a thread up on advice board:
HERE!!!
or here,
http://www.barficulture.com/community/advice/topic.php/2616/index.html
i want to find out how to do all that buying and selling shares stuff but i am totally clueless.. i need a mentor....!
someone nice enough to offer...?  |
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| 10:04am, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831497
|
oOo..I'll pop over to that thread and see if I can lend a helpig hand...nice icon!
BJ - I'm bearish as hell on oil as well. I did some spread betting on oil but the hooligans minimum bet size was massive so I found another broker who offered comfortable low size. One thing I've learned...even if I think the market is wrong, if its going against me I will never throw all my money down in one go...I actually "expect" the price to keep moving against me, and I keep adding to my position....dangerous games! |
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| 10:27am, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
BOMBER_JATT
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831498
|
dangerous it certainly can be... do you still spreadbet...i think if you are disciplined enough you can make sum decent profits...
alot of folk are still getting into OXB.l .... |
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| 10:38am, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831500
|
BJ - yes indeedy, I've had a rough week, but am up on the month. Just spent all week busting my balls testing different brokers!
Spreads are a lot narrower in the mks I trade vs a year ago...the games come a long way but its still a bit of a feldgling market.
I would say BJ, if you are actually trading fx, it may be useful to sign up with a pure FX broker. You can get lower spreads...you pay tax, but this isn't an issue for me yet! I wish it was...hah, I say that, but we are only just in the new financial year.
Its all good fun. Hope its all good at your end. The good thing is you can trade anything with these guys. I've been in and out of Nikkei, fx, oil and fixed income so far. Waiting for the annual weather report before trading Orange Juice futures though...no, no..stop, this isn't Trading Places!
PS - Come on cable, down you come baby...easy does it.
http://www.dailyfx.com/fxpowerchart/ChartStation.html
PS - Afraid I don't touch shares with a barge pole right now. |
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| 10:42am, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831501
|
BJ - If you are willing to send your moolah across to the states (at £30 a throw) Oanda is the Bomb as an fx broker. Spread on EUR/USD is 1.5 pips...no one gets close to this in the retail mkt. Also, I worked for an investment bank..trust me, this is tight!
Everyone else, if you want to play with monopoly money fx trading, sign up on Oanda's demo platform...it exactly the same as the real thing with live prices etc...its a beautiful thing!
Shamone then. |
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| 11:49am, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
terry
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831505
|
rizcenzo what how much capital do you have to come up with to place trade that risks say £10,000 per yield bp on the US 10 year? |
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| 11:56am, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831506
|
it depends on the broker and their margining policies. Also, as much as I'd like it to be, trading in US 10 year and the rest of the bond market is in price, not yield, ...still, its two sides of the same coin, its just that I understand yield better.
Anyway, if you are saying you want a move from 4.20 to 4.21% to earn or lose £10k, you are going to need crazy amounts in your account...regardless of broker I reckon you'll need something way north of £100k...call some brokers up to find out dude.
Terry, you are a whale, as they say in casino's...a big roller!
Ooh, get ready for US inflation data today at 13:30 UK time. |
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| 12:02pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
terry
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831507
|
i trade the 10 year all the time for a bank. i've never bothered to find out how much capital one would need to go it alone.
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| 12:13pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831508
|
I like the 10 best...hope its all going well. I used to work for Barcap..eternal fixed income bears. But once again, we're back down around 4.20%...it can't last for ever. |
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| 12:42pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
terry
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831509
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i attempted a short ahead of the PPI yesterday but forced to cover. i don't think anyone is long in this market...this thing coudl squeeze higher still.
what were you doing at Barcap...good name.
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| 12:49pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831510
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plying my trade as a fx analyst...all good fun.
I think short positions are good on a medium term view, there still a lot of inflationary pressure in the pipeline.
Hey at least a strong or weak inflation means something fairly solid for bonds. FX mkt doesn't know what to make of good/bad US PPI/CPI numbers. Recently, USD spikes in one direction, stopping everyone out, then goes the other way...typical I says...need nimble fingers at 13:30 today then !
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| 12:54pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
BOMBER_JATT
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831511
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just shorted the cable awaiting the us cpi need this git to fall ... i feel long/med term it should start to correct itself.... |
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| 01:09pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831512
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it hasn't hung around north of 1.90 for more than a few weeks on the trot.
we think alike...unfortunately I got stopped out on the recent highs..they knew i was sitting there, and I got hunted down like a fox the day before the hunting ban was enforced!
:) |
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| 01:48pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831519
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Inflation blurb:
KEY POINTS:
- It was the biggest monthly increase in core inflation since a
matching 0.4 percent jump in August 2002.
- Energy prices climbed 4 percent in March, twice the 2 percent
rise posted in February and are up 12.4 percent over the past
12 months. Gasoline costs alone rose 7.9 percent in March and
are up 16.8 percent from a year ago.
COMMENTARY:
DAVID RESLER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NOMURA SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL,
NEW YORK
"It was a pretty surprsing increase in the core rate. But
it looks like main culprits were lodging costs and apparel and
in neither case is there an overarching trend. It don't think
this is going to change anything with regards to the Fed. The
economy is growing about 4 percent in the first quarter, 3-1/2
percent in the second quarter -- not too shabby."
HUGH WALSH, VICE PRESIDENT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FORTIS BANK,
NEW YORK
"Much higher than expected. (Investors are) selling bonds
aggressively. Higher interest rates in the U.S. are supportive
of the U.S. dollar."
Nice move on cable BJ...I had a tiny short after getting burnt earlier...back in the clear again..fun and games eh! |
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| 04:29pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
BOMBER_JATT
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831538
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Dam cable has bombed up again....oh well....
riz do u know where i can get some tech analysis on the gbp/yen esp... seems to be scarce in terms of comment/analysis... |
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| 09:21pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831581
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Darn, that's a hell of recovery plus some.
I have only just looked at the charts..wow. Just goes to show the ambiguous impact of inflation of the dollar.
Expectations of higher rates are usually good for a currency but at a time when there are question marks over the recovery and when US corporates are issuing warning left right and center, I can understand why the market doesn't want to see a more aggressive Fed.
Hope terry did well on it anyway!
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| 09:25pm, 20th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831582
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Not sure about the charting analysis on GBP/JPY dude.
Its well worth reading the technical tea leaves in the fx market but I look at only the most basic of indicators...all of which I can pull up for free on charting packages...nice.
good luck |
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| 01:03pm, 22nd Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 831721
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The dangers of trading -expect the unexpected:
Just went long USD/CAD but before I could tighten up my stop loss a wasp flew in through the window, forcing me to run and hide.
I came back when said wasp had flown away, only to find USD/CAD had moved massively against me.
:S |
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| 06:48pm, 28th Apr 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832256
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shamone then, I thought I would try my hand at a little day trading...alas, my efforts were not fruitful to say the least!
my short-cable recommendation is only slightly in the money now, I think sitting tight for a few weeks longer could yield tidy gains.
Also, keep an eye on the US 10 year. Despite strong inflation data, real activity continues to look somewhat soft, with today's GDP (Q1) coming in weak. This has pushed the 10 year to 4.19%.
My view is that its all cyclical, and we've seen many bad patched followed by good patches. When that 10 year drops below 4.10%, y'all wanna go back in shorting the bejeezers out of it. |
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| 05:18pm, 2nd May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
indy
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832507
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interesting stuff here!! |
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| 06:35pm, 2nd May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832512
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indeed, its like Kevin Costner in "The Field of Dreams" ..."build it/write it, and they will come"
anyway, as a Bank Holiday special here is an overview of all the recommendations since we started:
(note, I've only ever recommended one security at a time...talk about putting all your eggs in one basket!)
PSUEDO-RECOMMENDATION REVIEW
1) August 2002 - Buy Apple $15-$16 a share.
Closed at $78.84 6th Feb 2005.
Winner!
2) 10 Feb 2005 - Sell US 10 year..yield just below 4.0%. Closed out a few weeks later at 4.30% yield.
Winner!
3) 6 March 2005 - Short NZD/USD at 0.7336. Closed out a month later at 0.7070.
Winner!
4) 8 April - Short NYMEX crude August delivery at $55.65. Closed out at 53.74 a few days later.
Winner!
5) Short GBP/USD on 19 April at just over 1.91. Current rate 1.8941. I'm taking profit on that one right now!
Winner!
5 trades, 5 wins...woo hah!
all these winners could get wiped out by a single loser, but what the hey!
..another thing, by doing this (blowing one's own trupmet), I am automatically going up against fate...get ready for big losses! |
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| 06:37pm, 2nd May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832513
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rational on closing short cable. I still think it's massively overvalued but see extreme overvalution above 1.90. Plus, the big move down today may in part be due to lower liquidity (Bank Holiday)...and when the Brits come back on board at 7:00 tomorrow it could get bid up pretty fast.
Either way...profits booked!
What's next???...cocoa futures look interesting !!! |
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| 09:14pm, 2nd May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
indy
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832522
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riz that is impressive!! |
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| 11:29pm, 2nd May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832531
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mmm, i'm sure luck is a factor but I'm certainly not knocking the trades so far.
If only I'd put some real dollars on the line! Well, I kind of did, but then I added all these additional trades to my portfolio that left only the slightest trace of profit.
Maybe I should listen to my own advice! |
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| 10:02am, 3rd May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832550
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Scary
last night I said: "..Plus, the big move down today may in part be due to lower liquidity (Bank Holiday)...and when the Brits come back on board at 7:00 tomorrow it could get bid up pretty fast."
Well, what happened at 7:00 this morning? Cable rocketed 40 pips in the first few minutes of London trade. I didn't have the position on,despite the sage wisdom.
:( |
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| 03:57pm, 3rd May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832584
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ever the smart alec. I've put on 3 losing day trades today. I have hit my quota and invoke my self-invoked penalty of no more s-t day trading for the rest of the month.
:( |
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| 02:53am, 5th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 832704
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that's it, no more late nights trying to trade the Australian dollar...what a costly pain in the ass.
:( |
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| 12:35pm, 12th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833396
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okay, here it is...back to the high yielders.
GBP/USD has tanked further and with the RBNZ moving to a more neutral stance and rates headed higher in the US, I think all the high yielders are going to be pressured to the downside.
GBP/USD is currently 1.8683 currently. I would do half now and the rest at 1.90 (can't rule out a move higher in the near-term).
This is the first time I am actually going with the short-term trend as opposed to going against it...lets see where this ride takes us...and fingers crossed on US retail sales this afternoon !
The contrarian has joined the bandwagon
:S |
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| 01:48pm, 12th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
BOMBER_JATT
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833405
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RIZ CAN U SEE THW CABLE BOTTOMING OUT FROM HERE... WHAT LEVELS U LOOK AT ? |
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| 02:19pm, 12th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833411
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well, thats a nice start...strong retail sales, GBP/USD down another 40 pips...happy days so far.
ah, BJ you are back....hope mkts are treating you well!
cable will always looks expensive to me at these levels, especially with BoE move to a more dovish stance and mixed economic data of late (actually more soft than mixed). I reckon we can't rule out another few big figures on the downside.
Personally, the beast is pretty volatile but I like adding a stop-loss at a comfortable margin when the trend is in my favour...that way, if you get taken out you still have some p&l...thats the price you pay...what you pay for is the option to run the upside on the trend.
this isn't going to help much is it?
:S
little tip..if you have broadband you can play Bloomberg radio live and they give updates around the big economic data releases...a few seconds slower than true real time but very cool all the same.
(apart from the US adverts!). |
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| 02:22pm, 12th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833412
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to make matters more complicated -
in fact if you like levels, take a look at the daily chart going back some 6 months. Current level of around 1.86 seems to be a biggish support level, marking the base of several previous troughs and a few old highs.....
...still, thats if you like to read the tea-leaves! |
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| 03:30pm, 12th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
HIERONYMUS_BOSCH
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833425
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EURUSD * Net Longs At Highest Level In 3 Months, Suggesting Further losses in Euro
GBPUSD * Long Positions Increase A Whopping 90% As Pound Sells Off 450 PipsOver The PastWeek
USDCHF * Both Bulls And Bears Reduce Exposure In USDCHF
USDJPY * Ratio Flips To Net Shorts With Bears Selling USDJPY Once Again
I just closed my short AUD/USD position @ 70 pips profit... the kiwis also taking a battering today....should be a Good day for the EUR tomorrow with the french CPI coming out |
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| 04:26pm, 12th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833432
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mmm, not sure French CPI will have any discerable impact on EUR HB dude....look at the historical impact of European data on the EURO and you will see that once again, the US is the center of the world ... alas :(
HB, re your positioning comments, if you are referring to specaultive CFTC/IMM weekly data, bear in mind this is a week and a half old now...use as adjunt to trades, but be wary of these numbers...far less useful than similar data for say, the commodity mkt.
....but its what you do that counts and respect to your trading..70 pips profit is good going indeed !
and GBP/USD goes travelling back up...its all good, we'll check on the position a month from now...I have faith (and no money on the line!!!) |
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| 04:34pm, 12th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
HIERONYMUS_BOSCH
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833433
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Re my EUR statement, I was referring to scalping the spike, the ultimate short term trade,
Once the data comes out you usually find a spike of anything between 10-30 pips, indeed the trend is my friend and I just come in and out of my trade on those pips.....easy money eh!!
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| 06:55pm, 12th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833450
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HB, I'm feeling your strategy but just watch out for the impact of European data on EUR/USD..ie it doesn't impact in my experience, though times may change.
The only data I would try that strategy on are German ZEW and German IFO...everything else and if there is any spike its unlikley to last more than a few seconds, and the spike may not cover the spread.
hope this is useful.
ps - I tried scalloping but I was the one who got scalloped!..its like playing an arcade game...just a little more expensive!
here we are trying to eek out a living out of the global financial markets...in fx,a trillion dollar + a day market, we only ask for a few crumbs.
:S |
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| 11:59am, 13th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
HIERONYMUS_BOSCH
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833500
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hmmmm, dollar bulls seems to be the order of the day, made some profit on shorting cable...should I pull out before Export/import prices come out at 12.30 or the U of Michigan at 13.45, if the figures for the US are worse than expected I see a lot of profit taking and closing of positions |
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| 01:08pm, 13th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833509
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Trade recommendation.
Just yesterday went short cable at
1.8683. We are already at 1.8574.
Because of the extent of the move that's taken place I am adding a take profit at 1.86.
That gives some 60pips of profit (before carry), but its not bad for a day's work.
...and so it is that the fantasy portfolio keeps on notching up winners (6 out of 6).
:S .. why doesn't my real money follow this pattern. |
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| 01:19pm, 13th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833510
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HB,
On the export prices/import prices these are not usually mkt movers.
That said, there are big question marks over inflation right now in the US. I would just look at import prices side of the equation ...reckon the risk is slightly assymmetric in that if if it looks like inflation is coming through the import pipe-line (via USD depreciation) then this could cause a bit of a stir in the fx mkt.
The relationship between USD and inflation is ambiguous but I would favour higher inflation = greater chance for rates to go up = USD strenghtening.
Its not so clear cut though, as despite a strong NFP mkt is still worried about Fed hiking aggressively to fight inflation despite soft real data, and thereby hurting growth.
PS - If you are in the UK, U Michigan is out at 14:45 (BST is an hour different to GMT right now). This is the initial cut of the survey so it could have some modest impact...I'd pin it as a 2nd tier indicator though.
Why don't you just place a stop-loss on your position to avoid profit erosion in the event that USD turns its ugly head on the data...I see only 0-30% chance of that though. |
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| 01:59pm, 13th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
BOMBER_JATT
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833512
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Had a chin wag with our cheif fx man....GBP/USD= he feels this is now a fundamental change in the view of the dollar, b4 they were looking at corrections now they believe the strengh has an fundamental bearing..... interesting thing the US deficit figure early this week indicated a slight reduction in deficit !!
tread carefully with cable |
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| 02:23pm, 13th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
terry
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833513
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^ dollar increasingly looking like a longer term bull story.
sell cable on rallies.
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| 03:14pm, 13th May 2005 |
MY SHARES |
rizcenzo
[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 833528
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hah, I see how the USD bull trend has converted some USD pessimists.
My view is that mkt analysts will turn USD bullish not by the economic data but merely by the price action, which has proven them wrong of late.
If you weigh it all up the economic data is still very mixed - strong NFP, decent trade deficit (but affected by lumpy items, and the trend is still for blowout deficits), but most of the data is pretty soft (see today's U.Michigan).
I'm not the biggest USD bull out there but I do find it funny how others become USD bulls AFTER the price action.
I've put down a droplet of hard money on GBP/USD lower but I'm chasing the move now...fantasy portfolio doing well, but I've missed the EASY money and will probably get stopped out.
Actually its not so EASY, becas | |
