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10:13pm, 3rd Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

ddon

[Profile - Diary]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/6280027.stm




07:57am, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

motee

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29150

will mcdonalds make pizza ?


10:03am, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Bhaju81

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29151

Investment in infrastructure everywhere is the key as well as creating opportunity for prosperity in rural areas.


11:42am, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29152

Will they make it as inn everyone is out of poverty? highly unlikely.

Worlds largest economy with a smaller population can not do that. Neither could the communists.

Will they become a major world player? probabaly


11:58am, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

maula_jatt

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29153

motee i don't know, mcdonalds making pizza probably they will.

risc they will do nothing about the poverty, they would become a major player, but they will face many rivals and need to have better relationships with countries esp nearby ones.




03:18pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

kanjoose1

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29154

I used to be one of those chest beating Indians boasting about how India is going places but after looking beyond the surface I'm not as optimistic. Sure the economy is growing at pace however an economic boom cannot come until true economic liberalisation occurs.

Many people think Indias decision to start liberalising its economy in 1991 is the seminal event in India’s history, the moment when it threw off the shackles of socialism and embraced free markets.....well if only!

Try opening a business in India....studies have shown entrepreneurs can expect to go through 11 steps to launch a business over 89 days on average,

Contrast the figure of 89 days with two days for Australia, eight for Singapore and 24 for neighboring Pakistan.

Also things like the urban land ceiling act and a rent-control act in mumbai make it virtually impossible for poor migrants to buy or even rent a house which in turn forces them into the shantytowns.....these shantytowns account for billions of dollars of dead capital in mumbai alone.

I can't see things truly changing until the communist left loses its grip on Indian politics. These guys believe free markets are the problem and not the solution. India’s communist parties have blocked labour reform, opposed foreign investment and prevented privatization of public-sector units.

But then again maybe I'm just a pessimist!


05:05pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

kaalia_81

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29155

poverty and stupid politics caused by ego and no regard for humanity.

for a country high on spirituality and home of Dharma, many of its people are anti that (the vested groups and well off lot) are blind and knee deep in self interest, greed, arrogance, ego issues and have no interest to serve man and the community.

Lots of positives about India (which we all know about) but the system put into place needs pulling apart, things like caste discrimination, reservations, caste rivalry and politics in certain areas.... I do not see these negatives reversing for a very long time. Man is too thick and self interested to believe all are equal and so divisive tactics will forever be a thorn in india's side.



05:35pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Bhaju81

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29156

'Man is too thick and self interested to believe all are equal and so divisive tactics will forever be a thorn in india's side.'

I disagree, I think that people will change slowly and that the attitude above is too pessimistic.

India is going in the right direction, after decades of 2-3% growth to hit 8% plus consistently is good. However there is still too much beaurocracy when it comes to running a business. I know family members who have their own companies and they say 30% of the time is spent on Government form filling rather then enhancing the business itself.

Bhaju


05:38pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29157

Think about it, all these forms someone has to check them and process. I don't think it will be automated OCR with a mainframe doing hundreds a minute. All these people with "government" jobs didn't just get them. Someone higher up provided them.


06:35pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

kanjoose1

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29160

The problem with Indias economic growth is that its been largely jobless. Only a million and a half out of a working population of 400 million are employed in the IT and business processing industries that make up the so-called new economy.

No labour-intensive manufacturing boom (of the kind that powered the economic growth of almost every developed and developing country) has occurred yet in India. Unlike China, India still imports more than it exports.

Hell our GDP per capita ($700ish) is barely better than sub-Saharan African nations. Although the finance minster Chidambaram recently said Indias poverty would be wiped out by 2040,the UN's Human Development Report states if current growth rates continue, India will not catch up with high-income countries until 2106.



06:58pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Bhaju81

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29161

True,it is manufacturing that needs to take off on any decent scale for India to really prosper.

I think what stops manufacturing to really develop is the still relatively poor infrastructure that manufacturing industries depend upon to be efficient. That is obviously less important for knowledge based industries becuase they dont have a huge issue with transporting goods etc.

It takes Government initiative and high quality management to really make the roads, railways and airports run better. Its what China has done a lot better then us.


07:44pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

kanjoose1

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29163

Its all comes down the communist cunts and the hindu right wing sang parivar imo. So long as these groups have a hold on politics nothing can change.

The commies are against a free market economy period and the right wing won't accept globalisation since their very sustenance comes from identity politics, and opening up of the cultural mindspace to “foreign influences” dilutes this- if people are busy chasing prosperity and gaining Western values, they will naturally have less time to sport khaki shorts and parade in local parks-lol.

Then theres the congress scum who are too busy pampering the minorities and playing dirty vote grabbing tricks to care about anything else.

India can't change economically until it does so politically which won't happen for a longgggg time.


09:12pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29165

Investment in infrastructure everywhere is the key as well as creating opportunity for prosperity in rural areas.

True,it is manufacturing that needs to take off on any decent scale for India to really prosper.

Some Gujarati kid's Uncle came to London and works in the Indian Ministry of Finance and I got the chance to talk to him. He explained they (big business and Government) were concentrating on building a knowledge-based economy so pulling the rug from under the West and shifting comparative advantage in service provision their way while leaving China to make socks and manufacture irons. Of late Indian Law schools have been churning out some fantastic Lawyers and the output of Engineers and graduates in 'hard' subjects like the Sciences, Economics and Information Technology was testament to the plan's effectiveness. This was all despite the fact that I mentioned I can't go a week in India without the electricity cutting off at least a few times but hey... he seems convinced!

Will they make it as inn everyone is out of poverty? highly unlikely.

The result of Laissez-faire Economics and meritocracy, unfortunately, is that there are losers. In my view this is the best way to go because it encourages sound policy to stimulate innovation and efforts to strive for growth that include effective investment in education etc. and as a great man once said: "A rising tide lifts all boats"

Sure the economy is growing at pace however an economic boom cannot come until true economic liberalisation occurs... I can't see things truly changing until the communist left loses its grip on Indian politics. These guys believe free markets are the problem and not the solution. India’s communist parties have blocked labour reform, opposed foreign investment and prevented privatization of public-sector units

Damn fucking straight! Vive la free market! Down with those left-leaning hippies!

No labour-intensive manufacturing boom (of the kind that powered the economic growth of almost every developed and developing country) has occurred yet in India. Unlike China, India still imports more than it exports.

What I said to Mr Minister Man too. Every developed economy has gone through an 'Industrial Revolution' of sorts. Then again, it could be argued that the West's economic success was furthered on the backs of the natives their Navies Imperialised...

India can't change economically until it does so politically which won't happen for a longgggg time.

Do ya think maybe the middle classes will crave the spoils they enjoy when they holiday in Amreeka and start demanding changes at home?
That'd be something!


09:43pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

kanjoose1

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29166

Indian politicians are so inept its hard to believe sometimes. Although when the electorate start voting for people simply because they are film stars/cricketers/share their caste or family name then this shoudnt really be a suprise.

Take Panjab for example. Its economy is largely dependent on Agriculture. It has been the bread basket of India for decades yet in 20 years experts say no irrigation water will be available and the place will become a desert. In light of this you would think the gov't would have implemented some sort of plan to diversify its economy to non agricultural alternatives....yeah like hell they have!!


09:53pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29167

Indian politicians are so inept its hard to believe sometimes. Although when the electorate start voting for people simply because they are film stars/cricketers/share their caste or family name then this shoudnt really be a suprise.

You're right.

But it does irk me when people talk about politics and the effect on economic success.

China liberalised its economy way before India. The government dictates every aspect of life for its citizens and crushes the very essence of free thought.

India, for all its pains, is the world's largest democracy.

The Chinese flout international accord on human rights issues and evironmentally friendly treaties.

I don't think this authoritarian hard handed approach can last.

The people always rise up.

So, I say, leave the Chinese to crack their countrymen on the head and drag them by the hair to the riches- as long as India- again, for all its ills- does not resort to valuing wealth above liberty... so be it!


10:30pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29168

leaving China to make socks and manufacture irons --fojee

Not all roses are rosey. Chinese are not thick, knowledge is what the Chinese are working towards in a very aggressive manner. Just look at the number of chines doing research at UK and USA universities.


India does produce plenty of engineers in the last decade. However you don't make enough QUALITY engineers. I by happen bump into some big players in the IT knowledge market fairly regularly and the consensus now is outsource your software development to India BUT you need to employ another smaller UK team to clean the mess they create. Thats just for the typical core services. Want something cutting edge, new you cant trust the typical Indian IT company they just don't get it right. Their are some people they feel they can work with for all outsourcing but too few.


10:34pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29169

Ah yes, research. Just mentioning it makes me squint. The Indians aren't world leaders when they should at least be in the upper echelons.

Having said that, I read somewhere that something like one third of Silicon Valley start-ups are initiated by Indians.

The associated "brain-gain" whereby those with such expertise return to India can only be a boon to the economy.

Just take a look at how Bangalore has turned upside down in the past decade because of it.


10:35pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29170

Same happening here but further up the phase. You wont last long as a average software engineer here any more. Nor making some crappy websites knocked off by Indians for £50. Their is a massive demand for experienced software engineers who create quality code.You hear a lot of people saying I cant find a job in IT all going to India etc.... the reality is a good coder in UK is like gold dust.



10:36pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29171

yes Indians are involved in Silicon Valley, many are returning back to India. How quickly can you create thousands of engineers every year? remember these guys spend a decade learning skills in US at least.


10:44pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29172



Fair does you're the IT guy, I just think there's a heck of alot to be excited about the Indian economy- despite all problems about the need for reform.


10:47pm, 4th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29173

But India's Universities churn out twice the number of graduates as Chinese counterparts, for example.

Therein lies the advantage they hold: scores of English speaking, degree holding potential workers living in a democracy.

No one said this would happen tomorrow, but the process began a while back- not even as long back as the process the Chinese have implemented.


12:09am, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29175

perhaps, I've not had detailed figures at hand.

One advantage India does have is a faster growing population. Bet you would have never thought of that.

Democracy does not necessarily mean faster develpent. Chinese do what they want, no one is going to argue with the communist party. As to whether what they do is the raight path is debatable. But it just needs someone from the top to give a nod. In a democracy you might have some RSS guy or leningrad book readers in power.


12:21am, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29176

Democracy does not necessarily mean faster develpent

I understand that and am saying I'd much prefer Indians weren't oppressed in the name of startling economic growth- the country is by no stretch of even the most patriotic man's imagination perfect- but we still have that.

The Chinese oppress foreign journalism that highlights the country's problems which is one reason I think people can (quite rightly, of course) find fault in India's economic plan far easier than with that of the Chinese.

You can't be wary of legally questionable land grabs in rural China and blatant floundering of international human rights accord if no one is able to report it because of obtuse censorship.

That, for me, is China's biggest short-coming. Sure the narrow chain of command from top to bottom ensures things get done but I don't it's worth it if it comes at the price of basic human rights and freedom.


11:29am, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29177

don't it's worth it if it comes at the price of basic human rights and freedom -fojee

I agree. But of the last 2 centuries how many super powers existed without massive exploitation?

USA - W African slaves
UK - W African slaves,"empire"
France, Germany, Netherlands - W African slaves and empire
USSR - Hard labour camps. Millions died working to death in Siberia.


12:12pm, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Kaalia_81

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29178

the chinese are in the shitters with regards basic human rights. Big problem in their rural areas, their media not showing whats goin on there.

india faced problems cos of socialist backwards politics and ideology of the Nehru-Indira Ghandhi times.



01:30pm, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29179

I agree. But of the last 2 centuries how many super powers existed without massive exploitation?

USA - W African slaves
UK - W African slaves,"empire"
France, Germany, Netherlands - W African slaves and empire
USSR - Hard labour camps. Millions died working to death in Siberia.


Well no superpower lasts forever- it wasn't so long ago that India and China were the world's largest economies anyway.

And that emphasises my point that actually India need not go through any sort of manufacturing 'Industrial Revolution' to progress. Tertiary sector industries, like IT and BPO, might propel the economy without the need for enslavement of any peoples- native or not- unlike the West did.


07:08pm, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29180

I sincerely hope it works out for the billions in poverty, in India. But you have to remember in a globalisation investment flows out as fast as in.

I dont think the expectations of poverty will be eradicated are realistic. Without poverty India would not have the cheap labour fuelling the current investment. You WILL reach an equilibrium, one without poverty in this global world as far as I can see wont be the one.


08:15pm, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29181

But you have to remember in a globalisation investment flows out as fast as in.

Well investment is an injection into the economy for future increases in GDP, so once it's there it's difficult not to take advantage of later on.

I doubt poverty in India will be totally eradicated too but in free market economies you have to have some losers, unfortunately.

Without poverty India would not have the cheap labour fuelling the current investment.

Current investment is being encouraged because of high end labour skills- IT technicians etc. etc. not labourers- that are comparatively cheaper there than Western counterparts to employ.


09:00pm, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29182


Current investment is being encouraged because of high end labour skills- IT technicians etc. etc -fojee

No it's not. It's cheaper boiler code programming e.g. core systems. Once standard of living rises, with wages so will the advantage.

Well investment is an injection into the economy for future increases in GDP, so once it's there it's difficult not to take advantage of later on. --fojee

What investment? I outsource 5 coding jobs or a call centre to some other company in India. If I by happen to decide Zimbabwe has better English (and cheaper) all I do is chane the phone number forwarding from India to Zimbabwe.


09:02pm, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29183

yes a few large multinationals have cheap R&D centres in India and they will find it harder to move. Rather than a week they need 5 years. That is not long.


09:27pm, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Bhaju81

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29184

The Investment banks have been moving parts of their high end operations to India as well as complex product design on the part of R&D oriented companies.

"This is way beyond mere cost savings," said Madhavi Mantha, a senior banking analyst at Celent, a Boston-based financial consultancy. "Unless global banks are comfortable with the quality of work, they would not risk taking the work offshore."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/12/05/business/outsource.php

But i accept the point that software and technology services alone isent going to generate enough long term benefits to GDP per Capita. There has to be some sort of greater manufacturing impetus. Tata's $2000 car to be built in West Bengal (I think!) is an example of innovation and manufacturing that more of is required.


11:50pm, 5th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29187

Lower end would be manufacturing and agriculture so in relation yes, IT is high end.


What investment? I outsource 5 coding jobs or a call centre to some other company in India. If I by happen to decide Zimbabwe has better English (and cheaper) all I do is chane the phone number forwarding from India to Zimbabwe
risc

Greenfield investment: direct investment in new facilities or the expansion of existing facilities. Greenfield investments are the primary target of a host nation’s promotional efforts because they create new production capacity and jobs, transfer technology and know-how, and can lead to linkages to the global marketplace.
...of the sort flowing into India.


12:01am, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29188

Ok lets say India created new roads, VoIP capacity etc.... what goos would that be to me if a competitor offers what I need. Granted it will be useful afterwards but as a outsourcing business I am not looking to INVEST just use infrastructure ALREADY developed.

This is what IS happening. Indian IT firms are trying to take on west in the west. TATA been knocking on door because they cant enough Indians. Offering £20k which to them is shit loads in comparison to India wages but a lot less to £36k being offered to graduates by American firms.

Why are they coming here? has out sourcing model turned, is it turning?

Outsourcing creates more wealth for Western firms. Indians where happy with something over noting. It ain't going to last.


12:20am, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29189

...much of the investment in fast-growing industries in India is done by the giant family conglomerates (such as the Reliance Group and the Tata Group) that have dominated the economy for decades and continue to be well placed to exploit the most promising opportunities. They use lots of their own capital, although increasingly they are willing to supplement this with money from the foreign private-equity and venture firms that are now desperate to be in the Indian market

Ok lets say India created new roads, VoIP capacity etc.... what goos would that be to me if a competitor offers what I need.

For the reasons outlined in above posts I think we've covered why India is an attractive destination for investment. Point is, why India now and not the West? Well, because companies are realising they can do what Western labour does at a lower cost- I don't know about your experiences in the industry you work in but the above diagram relating to India's lion share of the globab technology industry and even more impressive potential estimates suggests somewhere, someone making big decisions for massive companies is looking to India.

This is what IS happening. Indian IT firms are trying to take on west in the west. TATA been knocking on door because they cant enough Indians. Offering £20k which to them is shit loads in comparison to India wages but a lot less to £36k being offered to graduates by American firms.

Why are they coming here? has out sourcing model turned, is it turning?


TATA is an Indian firm. Really think about how impressive it is that an Indian firm is making headway in Britain, for example, with the acquisition of Corus- an Indian conglomerate taking over an Anglo-Dutch steelmaker.

I really don't think TATA can't find enough Indians to do the job but they're reaping such massive benefits from being a successful Indian company that they can come to the West and start taking over businesses here.


09:31am, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Bhaju81

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29190

The main point I'm makingis that India did become a BPO source for international firms because they could get large numbers of good quality graduates at lower costs then in the West, however these firms have realised that there are competitive advantages that Indian workers are bringing to their firms, and often of a higher quality than in Western countries.

http://www.offshoringtimes.com/Pages/2006/offshore_news1416.html

This is evidenced by Banks and Industrial conglomerates moving high end operations to India as well, which they wouldn't do if they didnt trust the quality of the work.

As for Indian firms going global, the reasons for this are fairly simple: namely ambition. They can achieve growth rates which would not be possible by staying in India. Tata's strategy would be to turn Corus around and why not have that ambition ?:

'The Tata-Corus deal has some of this raw ambition. But it is more than that. It reflects a rather special value proposition the Tata management can provide. The Tatas have operated a steel plant under difficult conditions, coped with competition and developed plant management, supply management, maintenance and marketing skills, which constitute a viable business-model for developed country commodity producers teetering on the edge of commercial decline.'

http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/nov/16indian.htm



11:22am, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29192

don't believe everything you read in the news. e.g.going to eradicate poverty by.... how?

TATA consulting is what I referred to earlier. They are simply looking for boiler projects e.g. banking core,some small ERP etc....not quite the same as Big Blue making super computers, 45nm CMOS, on demand architecture etc.... and shit loads of new innovations.



11:29am, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29193

The day you start selling knowledge that's when you have one leg over the west. At the moment western firms sell the knowledge i.e. IBM global services. They don't give you a box or a CD for the money. Just time, knowledge and experience.

Current model is Western firm sells knowledge and provides solution which is outsourced to India for COST benefits. Not becuase better in India or anything. For quality IT outsourcing goes to Estonia/Czech republic and Hungary. All costing more than India.


01:01pm, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29194

don't believe everything you read in the news. e.g.going to eradicate poverty by.... how?

I think we can be fairly sure that The Economist isn't like traditional media in that it's a newspaper that will use Economic data and theory to back up reporting- not so much reliant on editorial comment then.
Poverty in India won't totally be eradicated- at least in the forseeable future- but greater overall wealth of the economy above equitable distribution is a better aim.

The day you start selling knowledge that's when you have one leg over the west.

And that day isn't too far off considering our IITs are world class and Indian nerds amongst the brightest worldwide.

Hence the belief that an Indian knowledge-based economy will sustain growth in the long term.

For GSK the international dimension was important too: both Glaxo Wellcome and SmithKlineBeecham were global businesses even before they merged. GSK spends 40% of its £1.3 billion R&D budget in Britain (where it makes only 5% of its sales) and the rest mainly in other European countries and in America. Much new development, however, is going to India, Singapore and China.

This kind of sums it up:
Barclays' Mr Diamond, too, says that his company is now hiring heavily overseas, especially in India, and the quality is “absolutely jaw-dropping”


01:14pm, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29195

Quality at start of IT outsourcing was good. Now it's kind of crap as good players earn a lot more than they used to removing the cost advantage.

Just look at the telecom. You had well spoken grads quite competant. They have moved on, market size grown massively so you now fill it up with no so good employees. Quality gone down and so has some business.

Same is probably true in pharmaceuticals at the moment, the honeymoon period.


04:25pm, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29196

Right.

Let's just agree to disagree.


04:35pm, 6th Feb 2007   Will India make the Breakthrough?

risc

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 29197

done


07:45pm, 24th Jan 2008   Will India make the Breakthrough?

rikshawalla

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 36739

*bump* in relation to ddon's other thread....until these social problems are sorted such talk of 'superpowers' are ludicrous. Regional superpower yes, but global? Maybe in 50+ years.


10:42pm, 15th Mar 2008   Will India make the Breakthrough?

Fojee_Rajpuri

[Profile - Diary]
Msg no: 37235

China has a multitude of "social problems" and yet is thriving.

What say thee in response, rikshawalla?

(FYI: though I am proud of the burgeoning economies of both China and India I do think we should be tepid in our optimism of such grand promises)


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